Cola Hellenic salecanadagooseoutlets Bottling Co
Standard Poor base case operating scenario
We anticipate that volume demand will remain weak for CCH in 2012 canada goose uk black friday as a result of dampened consumer canada goose uk outlet sentiment amid the current uncertain macroeconomic environment in most of Canada Goose Sale the group EU markets. We project that demand will be sluggish, particularly in the eurozone where countries such as Italy, Greece, and Ireland face austerity measures. We believe that some price increases in canada goose store emerging regions will partially cushion the negative impact of weak demand on the group revenues.
In canada goose factory sale 2011 CCH adjusted buy canada goose jacket EBITDA margin contracted by about 270 basis points cheap canada goose uk mainly as a result of inflation in the buy canada goose jacket cheap price of sugar, juice concentrate, and PET resin. We anticipate that in 2012 Canada Goose Online the group is likely to face further input cost inflation. Given heightened price sensitivity in most of the group EU markets, we believe that any unhedged input cost increases in 2012 uk canada goose will likely be partly absorbed by the group and partly mitigated through selective price increases and improved product mix.
Standard Poor base case cash flow and canada goose black friday sale capital structure Canada Goose online scenario We view weak consumer demand, commodity price inflation coupled with consumer price sensitivity, and currency volatility as the most significant threats to uk canada goose outlet the group Canada Goose Outlet future cash flow generation. Despite pressure on the group cash flows, we project that CCH is likely to maintain an adjusted debt to EBITDA of below 2.5x and an adjusted funds from operations (FFO) to debt of close to 35% in 2012. These are the metrics that we consider commensurate with the current rating. In our projections we have assumed a low single digit decline in volumes, stable revenues, and a modest contraction in margins in 2012. We have also included capital expenditure (capex) of between EUR450 canada goose coats on sale million and EUR500 million. We estimate CCH liquidity source over the next 12 months to comprise:
Cash and cash equivalents of EUR476 million at the end of Canada Goose Coats On Sale December 2011.
An undrawn five year EUR500 million committed credit facility.
FFO of about EUR756 million based on preliminary results.
We estimate CCH liquidity uses over the next 12 months to comprise:
Short term debt of EUR322 million.
Capex of between EUR450 million to EUR500 million.
In addition, we Canada Goose Parka consider CCH access to the commercial paper (CP) market due canadian goose jacket to its EUR1 billion global CP program to be supportive of the Canada Goose Jackets group liquidity profile. Despite continuing weak macroeconomic conditions within several European markets, we project that in canada goose clearance 2012 the group adjusted debt to EBITDA will likely remain below 2.5x and canada goose its adjusted FFO to debt will likely be close to canada goose uk shop 35%, which we consider to be commensurate with the current rating.
Given that the ratings on CCH incorporate a level of implied support from Coke, we could lower the ratings on CCH either due to a weakening of Coke credit quality, or due to our view of reduced implicit support from Coke. cheap Canada Goose We could also lower the ratings on CCH if its credit metrics were to deteriorate to levels that weakened its stand alone credit profile. In our view, this would most likely occur as a result of an unexpected sharp rise in commodity prices and/or further deterioration Canada Goose sale of EU consumer confidence.
Given the level of implied support from Coke that we already factor into our current ratings on CCH, a potential upgrade canada goose coats is canada goose clearance sale constrained by CCH existing leverage policies, which weigh on CCH stand alone rating.